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Predictive Research Points to Price-Sensitive Retailers for Near-Term Sales Hikes

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Aeropostale, Family Dollar and Sam’s Club are three of the retailers “almost certain” to see sales increases over the next 75 days, according to predictive analysis reported in the ForecastIQ survey report.

The 11 retailers predicted to see increases all fit into the price-sensitive retail category, whether it’s big box, fashion or club stores. Specialty and upscale apparel, such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap and Neiman Marcus are “almost certain” to see a decline in the same time period.

Predictions for other retailers include:

Almost certain to see increase:                  
Buckle              
Fred’s  
Hot Topic    
Walmart        
                                                          
Likely to see increase:
BJ’s                                                                              
Cato
Costco
Ross       

Almost certain to see decline:
American Eagle
Banana Republic            
Bonton
Chico’s
Dillard’s
Nordstrom
Pacific Sun
Saks

Likely to see decline:

TJX
Wet Seal

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Flat:
Children’s Place

Using monthly consumer intention data from BIGresearch, ForecastIQ predicts same store sales for 37 publicly traded retailers. The system was developed by Prosper Technologies and Professor Greg Allenby from the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. The process combines monthly consumer intention data from a survey of more than 8,000 consumers, with retailers’ actual same store sales data and consensus estimates.

How reliable are these predictions?
Statistical analysis often is the object of severe scrutiny because numbers are so easily manipulated. Predictions also can be considered questionable since they are often based on opinion or compilations of past patterns.

So, is using stated consumer intentions a better way to predict retail sales? ForecastIQ says yes. In fact, consumers are even more likely to follow through on their purchase intentions during uncertain economic times,

Additionally, in a month when more consumers respond to the survey, upper-tier retailers fare better and discounters experience a sales decline, according to the survey firm.

How can retailers benefit?
Given the state of the current economy, retailers may be chomping at the bit for any morsel of information that may help them better plan for the short- and long-term success of their businesses.

Particularly in a time of economic uncertainty, retailers can benefit from knowledge of how consumers might spend. If accurate, these forecasts can help retailers refine inventory allotments and plan more effective marketing campaigns.

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